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Key states debated as primaries wind down

Published: Monday, March 17, 2008

Updated: Sunday, July 19, 2009 04:07

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Courtesy of The Washington Post/L.A. Times News Wire

Barack Obama currently leads Hillary Clinton in delegates won.

The race for the presidency is still on, but not without controversy. The Democratic race remains tight between Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), and two states, Michigan and Florida, could decide the Democratic nominee for president.

Officials in Michigan and Florida ignored the rules of the Democratic Party in January, moving the primaries for each state up earlier than were allowed.

As a result, the party stripped both states of their delegates, or officials who help select a presidential nominee during the party convention, which occur later this year.

Currently, officials in both states, as well as the national party, are trying to figure out how to get Florida and Michigan's delegates to the convention to cast their vote for the presidential nominee.

Jason Mycoff, professor in the political science department, said it is unlikely the party will outright deny the delegates from appearing at the convention. This would not help the party in the two states, which are often viewed as battleground states in the general election.

"That would be bad for publicity and bad for building support for the Democratic Party in Florida and Michigan," Mycoff said. "They have to figure out some way to get their delegates into the building."

Clinton and Obama are locked in a tight race and neither can rely on pledged delegates, or delegates won through primaries, for a nomination, he said. Superdelegates, such as party leaders and elected officials from throughout the country, will determine the outcome.

Mycoff said both the Clinton and Obama campaigns have different opinions on a revote. Because Clinton is behind in the delegate count, it is more likely she would want a revote and make up ground, while Obama would most likely want to see both states included only if the delegates do not change the outcome.

The Republican Party, on the other hand, does not have as much of an interest in either state because the race is basically over, he said.

"McCain is going to be the nominee," Mycoff said. "It doesn't matter that much at this point."

He said officials in both states are considering having another election, within party rules, so the delegates from those states count toward the nomination. The national party has not yet agreed to a revote.

The idea of a mail-in vote has been suggested in both states, but nothing has been finalized, Mycoff said. One reason for this is voter fraud, which occurs when someone sends in a ballot twice or uses fake names on ballots to cast more than one vote for a candidate.

Additionally, he said, another election would cost the state a lot of money on top of the original primary.

"Elections are expensive," Mycoff said. "The states have already paid for elections and they don't necessarily want to pay for them again."

Theodore Davis, professor of political science, said what happens with the delegates in Florida and Michigan could depend on another state - Pennsylvania.

Davis said if Obama wins Pennsylvania, there may be less of a push to count the delegates from the two rogue states. The party would not want to enter the convention divided, and if Obama won Pennsylvania, the delegates from Michigan and Florida would not put Clinton ahead of Obama.

However, if Clinton wins Pennsylvania, her campaign might push to make the delegates count, which would narrow the lead between her and Obama, he said.

"Hillary has a lot more to gain from new primaries in Florida and Michigan than Obama," Davis said.

Michael Ruppel, media coordinator for the College Democrats, said he supports the initial decisions by the states and thinks the national party made a mistake by excluding Michigan's and Florida's delegates.

Ruppel said he believes the determined primaries in both states will end up not counting but there will be some sort of compromise.

"Ultimately, they're probably going to institute a limited inclusion, possibly a caucus," he said. "I wouldn't expect a full-scale delegate primary."

Mycoff said he thinks the Democratic Party will find a way to get the delegates to the convention and allow some form of participation. Their votes may not change the outcome of which candidate becomes the nominee, but they will be there.

"They will find a way to get the delegates in the building," he said. "One way or another, Michigan and Florida will be participating in the Democratic National Convention, because it would be political suicide to not let them."

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