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Blue or red? Swing states could decide presidential election

Published: Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Updated: Sunday, July 19, 2009 04:07

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Katie Smith

With the election less than two weeks away, the Democratic and Republican parties are pouring their resources into the swing states and battleground states to win the presidential election.

Jason Mycoff, political science professor, said swing states and battleground states are two different terms.

"A swing state generally has enough voters to identify with the two major parties to make it consistently competitive," Mycoff said. "A battleground state takes it a little farther - the distribution of voters makes it possible for either party to have a legitimate shot of winning the state."

The current swing states include New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Florida, he said. Swing states remain fairly constant from one election to another, he said.

"If you're defining the swing states based on the number of voters, then it's pretty consistent election to election," Mycoff said. "States do change over time, but if you look from one presidential election to the next, it's likely that there haven't been great enough shifts in population to make it a completely different environment."

Each politician has different strategies for campaigning in the swing states and winning over voters. Mycoff said Sen. Barack Obama has relied greatly on networking throughout each state.

"The Obama campaign from very early on has been taking a boots-on-the-ground perspective," Mycoff said. "They've opened campaign offices with a paid staff in every state."

Theodore Davis Jr., a political science professor, said Obama has caught the attention and support of young and minority voters across the states.

"Virginia, North Carolina and Florida have had a lot of new people who have registered to vote, which includes young people and minorities," Davis said. "These are the groups of people who statistically haven't held high voting rates."

Sen. John McCain's campaign has taken a different approach with its resources in swing states.

Mycoff said McCain had approximately eight advertisements in the Washington, D.C. area which is one of the most expensive states to run advertisement campaigns. Obama had more than 1,400 advertisements in a specified time range in Washington, D.C., he said.

He said Michigan was a highly competitive battleground state for both parties until McCain decided to withdraw resources on Oct. 4. The McCain campaign decided to shift its resources to other states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama was also leading by seven points at the time in Michigan, another decisive factor in McCain's withdrawal.

"McCain and the Republican National Committee have been spending more money in Missouri which is where George W. Bush won in the last couple of elections," Mycoff said. "They're spending more money in states that George Bush won four and eight years ago and less money in states where Gore and Kerry won four and eight years ago."

Obama supporters at the university, such as UD for Obama, have been taking a grassroots approach to strengthening the Obama campaign in the swing states.

Andrew Grunwald, campaign consultant for UD for Obama said the group has been focusing on the swing state of Pennsylvania due to its proximity to campus. In addition, UD for Obama has been making cold calls to Pennsylvanian homes, taking students there on weekends to educate voters and registering people to vote in Pennsylvania, he said.

"Obama is about to get his message out because he has a lot of support which includes a lot of young supporters," Grunwald said. "The young supporters are more willing than most people to go knock on doors."

UD for Obama has also been registering students to vote on campus as well as directing students to the appropriate resources on where and how to submit absentee ballots, he said. On Election Day, the group will be taking more than 100 Obama supporters from the university to Pennsylvania to further promote the senator's campaign.

A representative of the College Republicans could not be reached for comment.

Until Nov. 4, the election will remain a close call. Both Obama and McCain will be heavily campaigning in swing states and making their presence known in the battleground states, Mycoff said.

"It's constantly shifting based on their read on where they have support or where they could have support," he said. "It's a dynamic system."

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